The previous week Nifty shot up 3% and broke the 15,500 - 16,000 consolidation zone. The rally was due to FII buying in the index heavyweight stocks. All though Nifty performed well, the midcaps and smallcaps fell slightly.
Last week both FIIs and DIIs were net buyers. FIIs have bought for more than 2500 crores and DIIs have bought around 900 crores in the cash market. As I mentioned earlier in the previous week's analysis, FIIs have stopped selling and finally Nifty crossed a 16,000 mark. We must watch whether FIIs continue to buy or sell this week.
This week we must look into the CPI inflation data. As RBI has kept the Repo rate unchanged (4%) for a long period, the inflation data might not be good.
Nifty is above the 16,000 mark and bullish. Last week the rally was really fantastic. Nifty is near all-time high, markets cannot keep on moving upward all the time. This week it may consolidate.
(Tap on image for full-screen view)
(chart from www.tradingview.com)
In Nifty, 16,500 has the highest open interest on the call side and on the put side, 16,000 has the highest open interest in the August month expiry. In the current week expiry, the 16,300 call,16,200 and 16,000 puts are having huge open interests
In Nifty Bank, 37,000 has the highest open interest on the call side and on the put side, 35,000 has the highest open interest in the August month expiry. In the current week expiry, the highest open interest is at 36,000; 36,500 on the call side and 34,500 and 34,000 on the put side.
The VIX is below 13, which is considered as low VIX. Currently, the PCR of Nifty is 1.79.
Global markets are flat. Stock-specific actions may be there this week due to the Q1 results.
4 IPOs are coming this week, Aptus Value Housing (10 - 12th Aug), CarTrade (9 - 11th Aug), Chemplast Sanmar (10 - 12th Aug), and Nuvoco Vistas (9 - 11th Aug).
Finally to conclude,
- Nifty may consolidate this week.
- Nifty may trade between 16,000 and 16,500.
- Must look into CPI inflation data.
- Avoid lump sum investing at this time since markets are at all-time high.
- Must look at how midcaps and smallcaps perform.
- FIIs activity this week is also important.
You can check the FII long and short data, FII DII net sales, open interest data, Global markets data, on the "Quick Bites" page. Click here and check now.
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