Markets Week ahead - September 1st week

 

Last Monday, Nifty fell but there was a good recovery. Till Friday there were no big events. On Friday in the US the Jackson hole summit was held and the effect of that meet can be seen tomorrow in the market. As the FED chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the interest rate will not be increased very soon, the US markets and SGX nifty reacted positively and closed at a record high. Now finally the fear of taper tantrum is out of the market.

Last week FIIs were net sellers and DIIs were net buyers. FIIs have sold for more than 6800 crores and DIIs have bought around 9500 crores in the cash market. FIIs are on a selling spree, now there is no fear of taper tantrum so, if that was the reason for FII selling then they might start buying. 

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This week we must look into the GDP data of  India and also the monthly Auto sales data and Manufacturing and services PMI data. As auto stocks have fallen due to semi conductor shortage, if the auto sales data is positive it might be a trigger. 

Nifty is above 16,700 and SGX nifty is also indicating a gap up opening of around 100 points. If the gap up is sustained, then we can expect a further upside move. India VIX is still below 15, so it's not an issue.

(Tap on image for full-screen view) 

(Chart from www.tradingview.com )

In Nifty, 16,700; 17,000 have the highest open interest on the call side and on the put side, 16,000 has the highest open interest in the September month expiry. In the current week expiry, the 16,700; 17,000 calls and 16,600 put are having huge open interests.

In Nifty Bank, 37,000 has the highest open interest on the call side and on the put side, 34,000 has the highest open interest in the September month expiry. In the current week expiry, the highest open interest is at 36,000 on the call side and 35,500 on the put side.  

Global markets are positive. SGX Nifty is currently indicating nearly 100 points gap up opening, on Friday it closed above 16,800. More puts are written than calls this month also. Currently, the PCR of Nifty is 1.5.

Finally to conclude, 

• We must look whether the gap up opening is sustained tomorrow.
• This week Nifty may trade between 16,500 and 17,000.
• Must look into the GDP, Auto sales and PMI data.
• FII participation in the market is also important.

"Have a profitable week"

You can check the FII long and short data, FII DII net sales, open interest data, Global markets data, on the "Quick Bites" page. Click here and check now. 

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